IBM Public Policy Prediction Markets: Collective Wisdom on Education, Transportation, Energy and Healthcare

IBM Smarter CitiesIBM recently launched its Smarter Cities initiative. Part of its overall SmarterPlanet project, Smarter Cities is an effort to find solutions to the problems that will occur due to our ever-increasing population growth in urban centers around the world:

In 1900, only 13% of the world’s population lived in cities. By 2050, that number will have risen to 70%. We are adding the equivalent of seven New Yorks to the planet every year.

This unprecedented urbanization is both an emblem of our economic and societal progress—especially for the world’s emerging nations—and a huge strain on the planet’s infrastructure. It’s a challenge felt urgently by mayors, heads of economic development, school administrators, police chiefs and other civic leaders.

IBM has the smarts and global heft to be a major voice in innovating solutions for the problems that urban population growth will bring on. And of course, it doesn’t hurt that there will be government expenditures to make sure we’ve got the infrastructure ready.

IBM CEO Sam Palmisano laid out three fundamental changes to global urban areas:

  1. Our world is becoming instrumented: Sensors and devices are coming down in cost, and increasing in functionality, giving us “for the first time ever, real-time instrumentation of a wide range of the world’s systems”
  2. Our world is becoming interconnected: With the rise of devices with these sensors, “systems and objects can now ‘speak’ to one another”
  3. All things are becoming intelligent: Better sensors, increased computing power and more information from interconnection mean that “intelligence can be translated into action, making our systems, processes and infrastructures more efficient, more productive and responsive-in a word, smarter.”

The sensors thing is interesting. I’ve heard both Tim O’Reilly and Paul Saffo talk about sensors as the big area of technology growth and opportunity.

As part of this initiative, IBM (in conjunction with Spigit) is running a series of prediction markets that you can participate in. The objective is to tap the collective wisdom of people around the world. Here  are the prediction markets for which they’re seeking your perspectives:

Education

  • Which approach will be most effective in enabling better education outcome within a major city? (link)
  • In order to increase the proportion of the population completing high school by 10% over the next five years; major cities will begin transforming education in what way (link)

Transportation

  • Which company offers the best portfolio regarding Smarter Transportation? (link)
  • In a major city, what will need to be improved in order to make transportation more efficient? (link)
  • What enhancement can a major city make over the next year to be a global technology leader in public transportation? (link)
  • What transportation enhancement will a major city, like New York, need to make to relieve its traffic congestion? (link)

Utilities

  • Which of the following will be the most important to the rapid deployment and adoption of Smart Grids? (link)
  • Over the next five years, what changes should a major city first implement to reduce energy waste and use its resources efficiently? (link)
  • Which of the following will reduce household energy consumption the most within a major city like New York? (link)
  • Which of the following should be a primary objective for a major city over the next five years? (link)

Government Services

  • The current economic crisis will change plans for high priority projects in a major city in which way over the next few years? (link)
  • If you were a mayor of a major city, which method would you use to assess the needs of your city, the business community and your citizens? (link)
  • In 2011, what will be the primary method for citizens to communicate with their smarter city governments? (link)
  • What immediate step should a major city government take over the next year to emerge as a leader in e-governance? (link)

Public Safety

  • Over the next five years, what transformation will large cities make to their public safety systems to reduce the physical / personal crime rate against people, property, and infrastructure by half (50%)? (link)
  • If a large city wants to improve its overall public safety position (i.e. reducing traffic fatalities, decreasing gang violence, improving emergency response capabilities) in which public safety area (or related city sub-system) should it target investment over the next year? (link)

Healthcare

  • Which of the following sub-system improvement will be most effective in providing immediate benefit to healthcare delivery for citizens in a leading smarter city? (link)
  • Over the next five years, what will major city hospitals do to increase efficiency and deliver better quality healthcare to its citizens? (link)

Other

  • What are the top challenges large cities (i.e. populations over 5M) within emerging markets will face within the next five years? (link)
  • What region(s) will recover most quickly from the current global economic crisis? (link)

If addressing these issues is something that interests you, check out IBM’s SmarterCities Predictive Idea Markets.

My Ten Favorite Tweets – Week Ending 082109

From the home office at the World Track Championships in Berlin…

#1: Spigit Innovation Summit Wrapup http://bit.ly/4zIqo1 by @innovate “It’s important to have connectors on your #innovation team”

#2: Jeff Bezos on corp #innovation: For innovative ideas to bear fruit, companies need to be willing to “wait for 5-7 years” http://bit.ly/tP9vj

#3: Like this by @paulsloane – Given unlimited resources to solve something, we’d dev something expensive & over engineered http://bit.ly/Qa3tY

#4: Zopa isn’t disruptive argues @bankervision http://bit.ly/ZYela His key points: same customers, same credit scoring, same pricing as banks

#5: Gary Hamel last week: “We have a state of creative apartheid, where some are *really* creative, some aren’t. That’s BS.” #spigit09

#6: Bookmark this: 14 Reasons Why Enterprise 2.0 Projects Fail http://bit.ly/3piYNF by @dhinchcliffe #e20

#7: Bookmark this: How To Kick Start A Community – an Ongoing List http://bit.ly/641dA by @jowyang

#8: Mashable: “14% of surveyed employers disregard candidates who use friendly smiley faces in social media” http://bit.ly/1ajvd8

#9: RT @skap5 Is IMHO a necessary descriptor? Unless of course the rest of your opinions are not humble.

#10: My son starts kindergarten in a couple weeks. Then I see this: “Tutoring tots? Some kids prep for kindergarten” http://bit.ly/3htw0 No…

My Ten Favorite Tweets – Week Ending 081409

From the home office in Taiwan…

#1: Investigating this foreign land, Facebook, now that FriendFeed is to be folded into it. Already had FriendFeed features, so kinda familiar.

#2: Imaginatik CEO @mark_turrell & I (with Spigit) debate the merits of Enterprise 2.0 and innovation: http://bit.ly/Dd55d Good stuff

#3: Jeffrey Phillips: The directed, invitational external community model best for generating disruptive innovations #spigit09

#4: Jeffrey Phillips: Great exercise is to purposely build ‘failure projects’. Learn what can go wrong, pick up signals for innovation #spigit09

#5: Reading: Should you do only things that are “strategic”? http://bit.ly/HTQty by @bankervision Small stuff in aggregate much bigger

#6: Great list by Gary Hamel: 25 Stretch Goals for Management http://bit.ly/vd8om (found via @sniukas) #innovation #e20

#7: Microsoft’s SharePoint Thrives in the Recession http://bit.ly/17g5I2 Microsoft is getting stronger in the #e20 space

#8: What Works: The Web Way vs. The Wave Way http://bit.ly/ZYWPN by @anildash His take: Google Wave will inspire changes, not *be* the change

#9: Has seeing the time “11:11” on a digital clock ever freaked you out? You’re apparently not alone: http://bit.ly/XrqVB

#10: Hiccups tip: Eat a teaspoon of sugar. My Dad taught me that, and it works every time. There must be a scientific explanation.

How many of us find our true talent? She did.

Photo credit: cyclingnews.com

Photo credit: cyclingnews.com

Over a year ago, I wrote a post here titled How Many of Us Find Our True Talent? In that post, I speculated that the vast majority of us find vocations and activities we’re good at. But we likely have talents in totally different areas that never really see the light of day:

My own theory is that each of have talents that are uniquely strong in us. For some, these talents would put them on the world stage. For most of us, they’d probably vault us to the top of a particular field. And yet I suspect that most of us never hit on those unique talents.

And here’s the exception that proves the rule. The Wall Street Journal ran an article this week, Cycling’s One-in-a-Million Story. It tells the story of Evelyn Stevens, a 26 year-old top-ranked cyclist who will be competing in the upcoming Route de France. That itself is impressive enough.

How about this: A little over a year ago, she didn’t even own a bike.

A former tennis player at Dartmouth, she was working as an associate on Wall Street. Putting in the hours needed, she barely had time to jog. Deciding she needed more exercise, she bought a bike. Pretty quickly, it was apparent she was a natural at it. The WSJ article relates how early on, with little training, she clocked a mile-and-a-half hill climb in 5 minutes and 40 – 50 seconds. Strong, trained male riders do the same climb in the low 6:00’s.

She’s now quit her investment banking job, and doesn’t actively pursue her previous sport, tennis. She’s found her true talent. As the Wall Street Journal noted:

The truth is that Ms. Stevens is one in a million: She was lucky enough to stumble into the exact pursuit she was born for.

Indeed.

My Ten Favorite Tweets: Week Ending 080709

From the home office in the former Soviet republic of Georgia…

#1: GigaOm: One RSS subscriber equals 5 to 10 Twitter followers http://bit.ly/MkRHF

#2: Interesting take: “To enable innovation it may be necessary to reduce the number of social ties between coders” http://bit.ly/5apJn

#3: RT @berkun The best approach for wicked problems is to break them apart into smaller problems. Repeat until there’s a piece you can solve.

#4: @GrahamHill Toyota had 20 million ideas in 40 years? Wow. That’s says a lot for how they got to the top of the automotive world.

#5: Checking out @lindegaard‘s list of books and people he finds useful for #innovation work: http://bit.ly/18MUk3

#6: Lloyds CIO: RT @kat_woman have u had a look at spigit? We used it 2 create a world-first idea mgt system internally that runs like a stk mkt

#7: Just spoke with Gary Hamel re: next week’s Spigit Customer Summit. Very nice, very sharp. His keynote will be: “Inventing Management 2.0”

#8: Reading: Go cloud, young man http://bit.ly/h2wx3 by @philww Cloud computing is the future #saas #careers

#9: With family, we’re hitting the shopping holy trinity: Target, Costco, Trader Joe’s

#10: I see these foursquare updates of people out and about, looks great. Mine would be…home….home…playground…home… Kids, you know.

How User Reputation Scores Will Change Twitter

Item #1:

As the spam annoyance factor on Twitter goes up, the credentials/relevance go down meaning less user value. @biz huge deal!

Kim Patrick Kobza, President & CEO of Neighborhood America

Item #2:

Twitter Search will also get a “reputation” ranking system soon, Jayaram told me. When you do a search on a “trending” topic–a topic that is so big it gets its own link in the Twitter.com sidebar–Twitter will take into account the reputation of the person who wrote each tweet and rank the search results in part based on that.

Rafe Needleman, cnet, May 6, 2009

Item #3:

I guarantee that if Twitter implements a ranking system, the same old crowd will shove everyone else aside. If I want to read the same people over and over, I already have Techmeme.

Paul Boutin, VentureBeat, July 31, 2009

Word of an upcoming Twitter reputation system has been dribbling out the past few months. It’s an intriguing idea, from a social web product perspective. Like any product, the devil is in the details of how it is built and how it is used.

The following are some thoughts about a reputation system on Twitter.

Let’s Admit: We Already Do This Implicitly

There is a pecking order out there. Really. And once you’ve been on Twitter, or reading blogs, or checking out Digg , or reading Hacker News, or hanging out on FriendFeed…you know it’s there.

Want to know who celebrity VC Fred Wilson pays attention to?

I use techmeme, hacker news, tim o’reilly’s twitter links, dave winer’s 40 most recent links for tech news

See? Fred Wilson doesn’t pay attention my tweeted links. Or yours (unless you’re Tim O’Reilly or Dave Winer reading this).

Arguments against assessing users’ authority are noble efforts to preserve an egalitarian ethos, but they don’t reflect the reality of human behavior. Like it or not, there is an unspoken reputation system already in play.

It Won’t Affect Your Experience…Unless You Want It To

We’ll talk about the basis for a Twitter reputation score in a second. Assuming they exist, how would that affect your daily use of Twitter?

You’re already deciding who you follow. If someone with low-grade authority is bugging you, what do you do? Unfollow. Same goes for high-grade authority.

Maybe if Twitter allowed you to view tweets only from those with a minimum authority level, it would affect your usage. You know, enable a “fake follow“.

OK, let’s hope they don’t do something like that.

Control the Trending Topics Spam

I’m all for crowdsourcing what’s buzzing. You can look at the trending topics on Twitter and get a sense for what’s going on now. Apparently it takes between 1,200 and 1,900 tweets per hour on a given topic to hit the trending topics. Once it does, people like to dive in and have fun. Exhibit A: see that #threewordsaftersex meme a couple months back.

Once it’s a trending topic, tricksters can’t help themselves by using the hashtag in an ol’ tweet, whether related to the topic or not. This is a dynamic that will only get worse.

The Wall Street Journal wrote about this occurring during the recent #iranelection hashtag activity. People would set up fake accounts. They’d then spam the Twitter stream using #iranelection, and tweeting misinformation or links to spammy things.

It’s that trait…fake accounts…that the reputation scores would help. On searches, only show me tweets from accounts that have actually had a pulse for the  last month or so.

What about people who pollute the Twitter stream, but are real accounts?

Can We Rate Tweets?

There are two mechanisms for indicating that you like a tweet: (1) retweet it; (2) favorite it. Both are positive rating actions. Favoriting doesn’t get much of a workout, retweeting is 3% of Twitter activity.

Suppose you put lightweight rating tools in the hands of users? Maybe simple arrows that accompany each tweet? People could positively or negatively rate tweets. My guess is that such easy voting would get higher usage. The negative votes would only come out for the egregious stuff that people post. And it’d likely only occur on hashtag tweets that are godawful. Because if someone you follow consistently posts crap, you’re going to unfollow them anyway.

Digg and Slashdot have been doing this for years. Generally, the really inane stuff gets buried well.

If you let the community rate tweets, along with retweets and favorites, you’ve got a distributed community rating system. Of course, this will also give rise to the inevitable gaming that occurs in social media. “Hey, please rate this tweet up!” But on the whole, these community rating systems work.

Scores would take into account these community ratings, how often you’re retweeted, how often people click your links, how often you’re favorited, the average score of those who follow you, and your number of followers. You can imagine a pretty comprehensive score here.

Reputation Score Visibility

Twitter profile reputation scoreNow this would be something. How about if everyone’s Twitter Reputation Scores were visible? Consider what is available now:

  • Number the person is following
  • Number of followers
  • Number of tweets

We implicitly consider these numbers as part of the calculus in deciding whether to follow someone. They’re not the primary weight, well at least not for a lot of us. We’ll look at their page of tweets and bio as well.

But can you see Twitter making this information available? My guess is that the blogosphere and the Twittersphere will demand transparency. If reputation is affecting the display of tweets in any way, they will demand to know what each user’s score is.

And then people will incorporate yourr Twitter Reputation into their decision whether to follow.

Reputation Becomes the New Number of Followers

Right now, there’s an emphasis on your number of followers. It is an important metric, because there is an element of old-style media reach there. It is also something that people game by blindly following thousands of people, hoping for them to return follow.

Well, Twitter Reputation will become the new Number of Followers.

Bloggers would post their Twitter Reputation Scores on their blogs. People will talk about them endlessly. Social media shops will advise how you can improve your Twitter Reputation. Companies filling social media positions will go beyond requiring a certain number of Twitter followers. They’ll look for minimum Twitter Reputation scores.

Not Your Father’s Twitter

Twitter is in a position where it has to prepare for the coming onslaught of spammers who will take advantage of the system. Reputation scores have proven effective in other communities. But Twitter is different from Digg or Slashdot. It’s more a mainstream communication platform, so using these traditional community management tools will likely cause quite a gnashing of teeth.

The challenge for Twitter is to ensure that reputation scores don’t kill enthusiasm for its service.

My Ten Favorite Tweets – Week Ending 073109

From the home office in Honolulu, Hawaii…

#1: Gartner Social Software Hype Cycle is out. See where 45 technologies are in the cycle (via Spigit blog) http://bit.ly/19Uw6k #e20

#2: Does Silicon Valley noise detract from long-term value creation? http://bit.ly/188Trx by @andrew_chen #innovation

#3: CNET: A Google Wave reality check http://bit.ly/34fv21 I, for one, love seeing the painful process of development, even at Google.

#4: I think we need a recount: EvanCarmichael.com ranks the Top 50 Geek Entrepreneur blogs http://bit.ly/YT1nn I come in #7 behind @louisgray

#5: The Atlantic: The Truth About IQ http://bit.ly/1l0qfR “Being branded with a low IQ at a young age, in other words, is like being born poor”

#6: The science of hunches? http://bit.ly/CDTJi by @berkun Like his take about the importance of emotions in the decision process

#7: Creating psychological distance f/ a problem is key to increasing your creativity. Make it abstract http://bit.ly/f7XUy #innovation

#8: BofA to Shut 600 Branches Due to Surge in Online & Mobile Banking http://bit.ly/14S4mg I never go in branches. Purely web + ATM.

#9: Ever wonder why we swing our arms when we walk? Research finds it’s more efficient than keeping our arms still http://bit.ly/O0Pwj

#10: Our friends’ 3 y.o. son cut the ribbon on remodeled SF playground today. He has spinal muscular atrophy, & can now play http://bit.ly/Z3DZR

Three Signs They’re Going to Send You Twitter Spam

Twitter SPAMThe other day, I saw a Twitter follow notification in my email inbox. Looking at the basic information twitter provides – number of followers, tweets and people followed – my intuition started to kick in. Then, looking at this user’s account, I had a hunch.

He was going to auto-DM me.

Sure enough, several hours later this auto-DM hit my email:

Thanks for the follow. I look forward to your updates. Hope you find something fun or interesting.

I figured I’d record here the three traits that tipped me off to the impending Twitter spam.

1. Following/followed by several thousand

This is something you often see. They’re sporting several thousand followers, and they’re often following the same number back. This high number is your first clue (yeah, I’m guilty here). If they’re somewhat new, they’re following several thousand, while only a fraction are following back.

2. Bio has one of the 7 deadly terms

Marketer. Coach. Speaker. Expert. Affiliate marketing. Social media. Multilevel marketing.

See one of these terms in the bio, and the probability of an auto-DM spam just increased 500%. Something about these folks. They got a Twitter lesson along the way that says you need to “engage” your audience on social media. You know, with a personal auto-DM.

3. They followed you, out-of-the-blue

This is the last trait. Somehow, you hit their radar. Not sure how. Maybe it was word you used in a tweet. An @reply exchange with someone they’re following. A search on your bio.

This is the final, most important trait. They have several thousand followers. Their bio has one of the deadly words. And then they find you out of the blue.

You see these three traits, and the probability is high that you’ll be getting that auto-DM in your email a few hours later. Of course, if they do, you can get back at them. Hit ’em with the “return-DM“.

My Ten Favorite Tweets – Week Ending 072409

From the home office in Sacramento, CA…

#1: AMZN CTO: RT @werner Was asked for definition of real-time web: to go f/ innovator to homophobic censor or book-burning nazi in 60 seconds.

#2: Reading: A First Look at SharePoint 2010 http://bit.ly/15y1tT Includes a great visual mapping of SharePoint 2007 to 2010

#3: Innovating innovation: An Interview with Scott Anthony of Innosight http://bit.ly/5pXbb Disruptive #innovation needs senior mgt support

#4: RT @VMaryAbraham Host a Failure Party http://tinyurl.com/oh99zc #innovation #KM Celebrate the journey, not just the destination

#5: Gary Hamel to keynote Spigit’s Customer Summit Aug 13-14, 2009 http://bit.ly/4wRljR #innovation

#6: The Potato as Disruptive Innovation http://bit.ly/4gqzQa “the potato explains 22% of the observed post-1700 increase in population growth”

#7: I generally avoid following the celebrities. But I’m so impressed with @KevinSpacey that I had to follow. His films and acting rock.

#8: RT @mattcutts A Google easter egg for people who know what recursion is: http://bit.ly/URa8U 🙂

#9: Rick Astley is playing on the radio here. We’re all being rick rolled.

#10: Working with my son on his Snap Circuits Jr electronics kit http://bit.ly/bRsJQ He wants to build his own nightlight.

Build it and they will come: Innovation Management FriendFeed Room

friendfeed-logoOn this blog, I’ve talked previously about the value of using FriendFeed for tracking topics from around the web (here, here, here). For instance, the Enterprise 2.0 Group, with 508 members, is a great place to track the latest in enterprise social software.

When I joined Spigit, I wanted to get up-to-speed fast on the topics and people driving the energy in innovation management. So I set up another FriendFeed Group, called Innovation Management. This one I set up as a “private, invite only”. I just wanted a nice place where I could learn and keep up with happenings in the field. I was tracking tweets with the hash tag #innovation, the words “innovation management” and Delicious bookmarks tagged with innovation. I also have the tweets of as number of people in the field captured in the Group as well. My own little private news service.

But a funny thing happened. People found my “private” Group. I had 17 different people requesting to join the Group. How’d they find it? I don’t know. FriendFeed Group search says “Find public groups“. It wasn’t public.

Regardless, there were 17 people who requested to join my little Group of 1. What to do?

I opened it up. What the hell, why not? So if you’re interested in tracking what’s happening in the world of innovation management, go ahead and click the link below:

Innovation Management FriendFeed Group

40 people are members already. See you there.

My Ten Favorite Tweets – Week Ending 071709

From the home office in the U.S. Senate in Washington, D.C.

#1: Reading: Your Idea Sucks, Now Go Do It Anyway http://bit.ly/10Dwi0 Most important thing is to get started, not be right #innovation

#2: Love this quote: “Disruptive innovation has been held up as the Olympics of innovation sport.” http://bit.ly/15ypw6

#3: Google and Apple “are accidental competitors. They just don’t seem to know it yet.” http://bit.ly/4xjXCJ

#4: Reading: Adoption stories http://bit.ly/6hNJr by @panklam on The AppGap #e20 #e2adoption

#5: Social Computing Journal picks up my post – Enterprise 2.0: Culture Is as Culture Does http://bit.ly/eTA43 #e20

#6: P&G’s @JoeSchueller has a nice comment on Google Wave’s potential in the enterprise on Socialtext’s blog: http://bit.ly/xRkGj

#7: I like @fredwilson‘s take on customers. Active transactors vs. active users. http://bit.ly/WrHQ2

#8: RT @markivey Why BusinessWeek Matters (from a former BW writer) http://bit.ly/fe9GC Really GREAT post, why we *need* our news institutions

#9: An entrepreneur who has built companies in both Silicon Valley and NYC describes the issues w/NYC for startups: http://bit.ly/G2Hss

#10: I ♥ wikis

My Ten Favorite Tweets – Week Ending 071009

From the no-hitter home office at AT&T Park in San Francisco…

#1: If you tweet about a baseball no-hitter in progress, is that risking a jinx?

#2: It’s from 2008, but still a great read: Shirky’s Law and why (most) social software fails http://bit.ly/HslAq by @michael_nielsen

#3: Email: The First –and Largest– Social Network http://bit.ly/4dmIiw by @jowyang Hmmm….where does postal mail rank then?

#4: Reading: 15 ways to spark a fight in the E2.0 community http://bit.ly/QvOj9 by @gyehuda #7 is my favorite.

#5: Anyone remember Larry Ellison’s dream of the Net Computer back in 1996? http://bit.ly/hirKr Fast forward to 2009’s Google Chrome OS

#6: @SameerPatel @defrag Oh yes, happy to provide the State of California with Spigit. Better filtering, to avoid this: http://bit.ly/2WyL2t

#7: “What are the five things you value most in life?” asks @fhinnovation http://bit.ly/xkc4L Me? Kids, wife, health, living in U.S., job

#8: My wife and I are now sharing our Google Calendars. Only way to stay on top of the kids’ schedules now that they’re both starting school.

#9: Are you following @badbanana ? Practically every tweet of his is a treasure of humor. Found out about him a few months ago thru @chrisbrogan

#1o: My 5 y.o. son yesterday: “Daddy, would you still love me if my name was different?” Me: “Depends on the name.”